Mele Kalikimaka

The banking marketplace today is dramatically different from what it was just three years ago.  Since returning to the industry in 2010, I’ve seen a lot of change — and not all good.  Nonetheless, I am bullish on the future of banking.  While some in the media tend to criticize financial institutions and harp on measures like one’s Texas ratio (which models a bank’s risk profile to fail — and also inspired this site’s name), I prefer to focus on financial institutions as the fabric of our neighborhoods and communities.  When I write About That Ratio it is in stark contrast to those who deride the importance of banks.  I am not blind to the problems facing many bankers today, nor ignorant of errors and indiscretions made by some of our larger names.  Still, count me an optimist that better times are ahead.  So before my family and I take off for Christmas in Tulum, Mexico, one last About That Ratio for 2013 that shares three things from the week that was.

(1) While many year-end blogs take a look back,  Jim Marous authored a comprehensive forward-looking post on his “Bank Marketing Strategies” blog.  His 2014 Top 10 Retail Banking Trends and Predictions compiles opinions from 60 global financial services leaders — including bankers, credit union executives, industry providers, financial publishers, editors and bloggers, advisors, analysts and fintech followers.  I appreciated his invitation to contribute and thought to share the crowd’s top three trends for 2014:

1. The “Drive-to-Digital” trend will impact delivery, marketing and service usage;
2. Payment disruption will increase vis-a-vis new players, technologies and innovations; and
3. Increased competition from “neobanks” and non-traditional players will accelerate.

Take a read through these and the subsequent seven points offered up.  As Jim writes, “disruption will continue at an unprecedented pace and that the industry will look different this time next year.”

(2) It is hard to escape the reshaping of the banking industry through merger activity; in particular, the return of negotiated, strategic bank combinations.  While in San Francisco a few months ago, I wrote about Heritage Financial’s combination with Washington Banking Co.  Forgive the use of “merger of equals” to describe the deal; however, that misnomer best represents the agreement.  Some see these deals becoming more popular as bankers seek to build value for the next few years in order to sell at higher multiples.  Others cite a desire to create more immediate value through cost cuts and efficiencies.  Regardless of who’s driving and who’s riding, there were quite a few notable deals in 2013; for example, Umpqua and Sterling and the recent “51/49” deal between United Financial Bancorp and Rockville Financial.  I get the sense that more boards will consider deals structured like these to accelerate “scaling up” without utilizing cash as the currency for an acquisition.  Time will tell if I’m right.

(3) Finally, I readily admit my excitement to welcoming men and women from across the country to various Bank Director events next year.  From our BIG M&A conference at the Arizona Biltmore in January to The Growth Conference at the Ritz-Carlton New Orleans in May to a peer exchange for officers & directors at the Ritz-Carlton in San Francisco, we have a lot planned.  These events are a big part of our 23 year-old company’s business — and its pretty darn cool to participate in various conversations that relate to growth, innovation and “what’s working.”  I’m not alone in thinking it is time for bank CEOs and their boards to go on the offensive.  Competing successfully in a marketplace, managing shareholder expectations, overcoming regulatory obstacles, developing talent and leadership for the next generation, and, most of all, ensuring that one’s institution has the option of choosing whether to “acquire or be acquired”… yup, topics galore for me to cover here in 2014.

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I end every Friday post with a nod to my mother-in-law (who passed away four years ago).  She lived on the Big Island for several years and became quite fond of the “Aloha Friday” tradition; hence, the sign off.  The only Hawaiian saying that puts a bigger smile on my face is today’s title: Mele Kalikimaka!