Consolidation Trends in Banking

By Al Dominick, CEO of DirectorCorps — parent co. to Bank Director & FinXTech

Quickly:

  • Nationwide consolidation in the banking space will continue; at least, that is my sense based on conversations and presentations at Crowe Horwath’s Bank Leadership and Profitability Improvement Conference.

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So much of this morning was spent talking about growth through mergers and acquisitions (M&A) that I couldn’t help but flash back to January’s Acquire or Be Acquired conference.  Thematically, I went into that event expecting the unexpected.  Given this morning’s presentations on growing one’s bank, I believe that mindset still holds water.

For example, Tom Michaud, the president and CEO of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, described 2016 and 2017 as one bumpy ride.  From recession fears to lower-for-longer rates, the initial euphoria after the presidential election (at least in terms of stock prices, which went up 27% – 30%) to the uncertainty of regulatory relief, he reminded us of where we are coming from relative to where we might be heading.  I am always curious to hear what Tom thinks about the state of banking; below, ten things I learned from him this morning:

  1. The interest rate outlook is a bit cloudier than it was in November;
  2. Regional banks have had excellent earnings per share growth relative to the overall market;
  3. We have an active pace of consolidation — nearly 5% of the industry is merging;
  4. The most prolific acquirers can buy 2, maybe 3 banks, at best each year;
  5. M&A deals are getting bigger — not ’97 or ’98 levels, but bigger than where they’ve been;
  6. Large buyers are not in the game right now — buyers $25Bn and below continue to drive M&A activity (case-in-point, 95% of total M&A deals since 2011 have buyer assets less than $25Bn);
  7. Buyers are completing their acquisitions in 6 months or less;
  8. Banks with strong tangible book value multiples are dominating M&A;
  9. There have been 37 bank IPOs since 2013 — and the market today is open to small bank IPOs; and
  10. If you’re running a bank, you better be watching (like a hawk) the FinTech charters being pursued by companies like SoFi.

Following Tom’s presentation, we doubled down on growing-the-bank type topics with a session involving Rick Childs, a partner at Crowe Horwath, Jim Ryan, the CFO at Old National Bancorp, Jim Consagra, EVP and COO at United Bancshares and Bryce Fowler, chief financial officer at Triumph Bancorp.

From pricing discipline to acquisitions of privately-held/closely-held companies, the guys made clear that “there are only so many deals out there.”  They shared how boards need to determine the size they want to be, honestly assess the talent they have relative to such aspirations and determine how growth through M&A aligns with enterprise risk management positioning.  Essentially, their remarks made clear that a successful merger or acquisition involves more than just finding the right match and negotiating a good deal.

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As I shared with yesterday’s post, my thanks to Crowe Horwath, Stifel, Keefe Bruyette & Woods and Luse Gorman for putting together this year’s Bank Leadership and Profitability Improvement Conference at The Inn at Spanish Bay in Pebble Beach, California.

9 Banks I Bet People Will Be Talking About at Acquire or Be Acquired

I planned to write about a number of banks I was excited to see this weekend at AOBA.  But as Steve Jobs once shared “people don’t know what they want until you show it to them.” In this spirit, let me highlight nine banks that I anticipate our attendees will be talking about in Arizona at Bank Director’s annual M&A conference.

In a few minutes, I’ll hop an American flight to Phoenix for this year’s Acquire or Be Acquired Conference.  Before I depart the cold and slush of D.C. for some warmth and sun in the desert, this is my take on the banks I anticipate people talking about when we’re all together:

  • Bank of the West — and not just because their CEO is keynoting this year’s conference.  The bank, with more than 700 branches in the Midwest and Western United States, has long been a personal favorite of mine and competes in markets where many look for inspiration.
  • Bank of North Carolina — because they’ve been wheeling and dealing and are a great example of how an acquirer successfully integrates cultures (*yes, their CEO also speaks at AOBA this year on a CEO panel entitled Finding the Right Partners).
  • United Bank — having picked up a trophy franchise of their own in my hometown (another personal favorite of mine, Bank of Georgetown) they’ve made a number of interesting deals over the past few years and I bet have more on their mind.
  • BB&T — having dealt for Susquehanna in ’14 and National Penn in ‘15, it is fair to ask: who’s next?

By no means are these all of the banks that will come up in conversation; rather, those that are top of mind.

One final thought before hopping my flight west.  The recent volatility in the stock market may be impacting institutions considering a capital raise, IPO or acquisition — but this week’s deal pace is far different then at this time in recent years.  The patterns I’m beginning to see is a concentrated effort to get to over the $5Bn asset mark and into that sweetest of spots: the $5Bn to $50Bn asset class.  A point I’ll elaborate on in an upcoming post/video.

So if you are interested in following the conference conversations via social channels, I invite you to follow me on Twitter via @AlDominick, the host company, @BankDirector, and search & follow #AOBA16 to see what is being shared with (and by) our attendees.  Safe travels to those 930 men & women joining us this weekend!

On Bank Branches and a Bank’s Brand

When I think about top performing banks, I typically consider those with the strongest organic growth in terms of core revenue, core noninterest income, core deposit growth and loan growth.  Sure, there has been a lot of talk about growing through acquisition (heck, last week’s post, “Seeking Size and Scale” looked at BB&T’s recent acquisitions and my monthly column on BankDirector.com was entitled “Why Book Value Isn’t the Only Way to Measure a Bank“).  But going beyond M&A, I’m always interested to dive into the strategies and tactics that put profits on a bank’s bottom line.

Build Your Brand or Build Your Branch

Earlier in the week, KBW’s Global Director of Research and Chief Equity Strategist, Fred Cannon, shared a piece entitled “Branch vs. Brand.”  As he notes, “branch banking in the U.S. is at an inflection point; the population per branch has reached a record level in 2014 and is likely to continue to increase indefinitely. The volume of paper transactions peaked long ago and with mobile payment now accelerating the need for branches is waning. As a result, many banks see closing branches as a way to cut costs and grow the bottom line. However, branches have served as more than transactional locations for banks. The presence of branch networks has projected a sense of identity, solidity and ubiquity to customers that has been critical to maintaining a bank’s brand.”  He then poses this doozy of a question:

“If branch networks are reduced, what is the replacement for a bank’s identity?”

Fred and his colleagues at KBW believe banks need to replace branches with greater investments in brand. As he shares, “some of this investment will be in marketing, (as) a brand is more than a logo. We believe banks will also need to invest in systems, people, and processes to project the sense of identity, solidity, and ubiquity that was projected historically by branch networks.”

United Bank, An Example of a High-Performing Bank

One example of a bank that I think is doing this well is United Bank.  On Wednesday, I had the chance to check out their new financial center in Bethesda, MD.  With dual headquarters in Washington, DC and Charleston, WV, the $12.1 billion regional bank holding company is ranked the 48th largest bank holding company in the U.S. based on market capitalization. NASDAQ-listed, they boast an astonishing 41 consecutive years of dividend increases to shareholders – only one other major banking company in the USA has achieved such a record.  Their acquisition history is impressive — as is their post-integration success.  United continues to outperform its peers in asset quality metrics and profitability ratios and I see their positioning as an ideal alternative to the offices Wells Fargo, SunTrust and PNC (to name just three) operate nearby.

A Universal Priority

Clearly, United’s success reflects a superior long-term total return to its shareholders.  While other banks earn similar financial success, many more continue to wrestle with staying both relevant and competitive today.  Hence my interest in Deloitte’s position that “growth will be a universal priority in 2015, yet strategies will vary by bank size and business line.”  A tip of the hat to Chris Faile for sharing their 2015 Banking Outlook report with me.  Released yesterday, they note banks may want to think about:

  • Investing in customer analytics;
  • Leveraging digital technologies to elevate the customer experience in both business and retail banking;
  • Determining whether or not prudent underwriting standards are overlooked; and
  • Learning from nonbank technology firms and establish an exclusive partnership to create innovation and a competitive edge.

With most banks exhibiting a much sharper focus on boosting profitability, I strongly encourage you to see what they share online.

Aloha Friday!

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